Among Republican primary voters, Donald Trump continues to have a commanding lead. Others, however, have persisted in seeking the Republican candidacy in the vain hope that they may one day unseat him.
Based on his polling and unprecedented margin of victory at the Iowa caucuses, the former president—who launched his campaign in November—has been more dominant. As of mid-January, he had a lead of more than 50 percentage points over his closest rivals, Nikki Haley of South Carolina and former UN ambassador Ron DeSantis of Florida.
Everyone else has failed miserably in their efforts to close the gap between themselves and Trump since they are all now polling in the single digits. Ex-Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson was the most recent presidential candidate to withdraw on January 16 after falling more and further behind other leading competitors.
Some Republicans may think Trump would have trouble in a general election, but it’s looking less and less probable that anyone can challenge him seriously. In addition to being widely disliked by the American public, Trump is now the subject of several ongoing criminal and legal investigations. Not only did he fail in his 2020 reelection bid, but the politicians he endorsed also fared poorly in the 2022 midterms. However, rather than falling, Trump’s support among Republicans has simply increased in light of all that.
The Republican standings
Based on what we know so far, Trump is making a victorious comeback to national politics in the primary, while his opponents are vying for second place. Whether Haley or DeSantis can defeat Trump is debatable.
Previous US President Donald Trump
Crimes related to the January 6, 2021, Capitol rebellion, the preservation of secret papers beyond Trump’s departure from office, and hush money payments made during his 2016 campaign have cast a shadow over the GOP primary. There are 91 charges against him, and he might spend some time behind bars. That’s not even taking into consideration the legal lawsuits he’s facing, one of which has the potential to seize his enterprises in New York.
The campaign has taken a financial hit as a result of Trump’s legal battle; the president has spent tens of millions of dollars from his campaign coffers on legal fees, and his court hearings will keep interfering with his hectic campaign schedule. Although Trump’s popularity among Republicans has been unaffected by the court trials, his advantage in the polls has grown with each indictment.
It seems that his followers share Trump’s belief that these instances are the result of a “political witch hunt,” an accusation he has made on several occasions without basis. In the primaries, that may work for Trump. It is unclear, however, if the former president would lose support among moderates and independents as a result of these charges.
Trump may be in deep trouble if he were to alienate such people. Some surveys show Trump barely defeating Vice President Joe Biden in their head-to-head contests during the last month, while others have him winning crucial states. Lots may happen between now and November 2024, but if Trump is nominated by his party, the figures point to a close contest where the swing voters might decide the outcome.
Republican opponents are being careful not to use the investigations into Trump to cast him as unsuitable for another term, but this hasn’t stopped Trump from receiving little criticism from his right wing. The contenders have mostly avoided explicitly attacking Trump out of concern for losing support from Republican primary supporters, whom he has managed to retain. While doing so, they have failed miserably in establishing clear pathways and providing compelling reasons for the party to reject Trump.
The extreme agenda of a second Trump presidency would certainly exceed that of the first. He surrounded himself with conservative establishment figures who helped rein down his worst tendencies when he took office in 2016. He would probably choose supporters to take their places the next time around, and they would look out for his best interests—including resolving his legal issues.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida was once considered Trump’s strongest opponent. In 2022, he was re-elected with a margin of about 20 points, contributing to the arrival of a red wave in the once-swing state of Florida, although Republican candidates fared poorly in the midterm elections nationwide. However, his campaign has failed to differentiate itself enough from MAGA while still attracting a large enough audience to be effective, and he is now behind Trump in the polls.
For years, DeSantis has worked to elevate his national reputation by elevating Florida to the forefront of conservative governance, which has sparked similar legislation in other states. Nearly every topic in the culture war has been championed by him, including attacks on LGBTQ rights, downplaying the dangers of COVID-19, limiting access to abortion, and the elimination of liberally minded content from school curricula.
That plan, which he calls his “blueprint” for America, was enacted in Florida this session with the help of the state legislature. Florida is likely to remain red for the time being, thanks to DeSantis and his right-wing legislation. He advocated for a redrawn congressional map in 2022 that was slanted in favor of Republicans; as a result, Republicans gained three seats in the House during the midterm elections.
While seemingly making more progress with Latino voters, he broadened the base and won areas like Miami-Dade that Republicans haven’t held in decades. A record for gubernatorial campaigns was broken by him last cycle when he raised almost $200 million. Nonetheless, his campaign has been challenging. Some Republican contributors are concerned that his signature on a Florida law prohibiting abortions beyond six weeks may be unpopular with voters in the next general election.
His capacity to assert triumph over “woke” businesses has been rendered moot by his string of defeats in his high-stakes battle with Disney. For fear of losing support from his supporters, he has mostly ignored Trump’s insults. His campaign has lately undergone some reorganization after a string of gaffes on topics ranging from chocolate pudding (supposedly) to Ukraine. Concerns over his popularity and the financial stability of his campaign have arisen in light of the upcoming primaries.
He’s aiming to distinguish himself in the race by aligning with Trump’s conservative views on COVID-19 and abortion while also contrasting his style of leadership with Trump’s ostentatious rhetoric. However, he remains steadfastly Trumpist in many respects. So, to defeat Biden in the general election, DeSantis would need to bend himself to seem moderate if he were to become the GOP presidential candidate.
Hey there, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley!
Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina and current US ambassador to the UN, has positioned herself as a younger, more moderate rival to Trump who is capable of winning the general election. In seven of the last eight presidential elections, the Republican Party has failed to win the popular vote. That must be changed,” Haley said in the video announcing her candidacy. It’s about time we had some fresh faces at the helm.
Haley, whose parents are Indian immigrants, is running for president by highlighting her experience working to unite the Republican Party’s more traditionalist base with her platform on foreign policy.
She has implied that she would be unyielding in her opposition to American enemies overseas. Even though she supported contentious policies—like Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris Climate Accords, and the UN Human Rights Council—she maintained a high level of respect from her colleagues on the UN Security Council and had one of the worst approval ratings of any Trump administration official.
Who knows whether that foreign policy background will ring true in a country where the majority ranks government and inflation as its top concerns? However, Haley has conservative credentials as well.
In 2011, she was elected governor of South Carolina with the backing of Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, and the hardline Tea Party faction of the Republican Party. Following the 2015 massacre of nine Black churchgoers in Charleston, South Carolina, she signed a measure to remove the Confederate flag from the state capital, which garnered bipartisan support.
She also fought against the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the state and tightened voter ID requirements. Securing the border, instituting economic prudence, and criticizing the “socialist left” were all staples of her introduction video, which covered classic conservative themes.
Cultural conflicts have also drawn her into them. The trans influencer’s partnership with Bud Light sparked a broad conservative boycott of the company, and she went on a tirade against the influencer at a marketing event in May of last year. In addition to pledging to be “unapologetically pro-life,” she urged the GOP to reach a “consensus” on abortion that speaks to the concerns of the American people and ensures that her party continues to win elections.
In addition to becoming the first woman governor of South Carolina and the first Indian American to hold a statewide post there, Haley would also become the first Asian American and first woman to get the Republican nominee for president if she were to win. Like DeSantis, she consistently ranks about 50 percentage points behind Trump, although her position in the race is dependent on the polling average used.
The unaffiliated Republican who has very little chance of winning
At one point, the Republican Party fielded several long shots that lacked either widespread popularity or the financial backing of prominent figures. Currently, Ryan Binkley, a preacher and entrepreneur, is the only one. Since he consistently ranks last in surveys and shows no indications of improving his position, his continued participation in the nomination campaign is uncertain.
Ryan Binkley, a businessman and preacher from Texas, is perhaps the least well-known contender since he has never run for public office before. He and his wife started two churches in Richardson, Texas: Create Church and Generational Group, which provides advice on mergers and acquisitions. He has been able to fund his campaign entirely from the profits of his firm.
In addition to his Christian platform, he has called for reforming immigration policies, investing in urban schools, reducing the national debt, and regulating pharmaceutical firms.
Former Governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas
As long as the majority of Republican voters continue to support the ex-president, there’s no need to fight against Trump. Still, Hutchinson attempted to take a position on ideology by giving Republican voters a way out of MAGA ideas, even if the majority of people don’t seem to desire this.
Given the criminal allegations that Trump is facing, veteran Trump opponent Hutchinson told ABC that Trump should get out of the election. Though Hutchinson has admitted that Trump is unlikely to do that and that nothing can stop him from continuing, she did work on the impeachment of President Bill Clinton.
The office is paramount above any one person, that is to say. “I believe that’s too much of a distraction and sideshow, and he needs to be able to concentrate on his due process,” Hutchinson said, expressing concern for the president.
Hutchinson was term-limited out of office in January after eight years as governor of Arkansas. Among the conservative policies he championed during his time in office were the following: a prohibition on transgender students’ participation in school athletic teams; a prohibition on mandatory vaccination against COVID-19; and a prohibition on the use of face masks at the state and municipal levels.
Afterward, he regretted that the abortion ban did not have any exemptions and stated his desire to remove the mask requirement ban in response to a spike in coronavirus infections in August 2021. Even yet, Hutchinson has failed to make a significant impact in the 2024 race, failing again and time again to break into the single digits. After receiving less than 200 votes in the Iowa caucuses, he decided to abandon his candidacy.
Campaigner Vivek Ramaswamy from the right
Even though many of his Republican opponents never considered Ramaswamy a credible candidate, the right-wing figure managed to increase his prominence throughout the 2024 campaign. Even though he had trouble getting into the single digits in the polls, he managed to become somewhat famous—if not popular—thanks to his aggressive debate performances and constant media appearances.
He backed Trump right away and then pulled out of the race after finishing fourth in the Iowa caucuses. In addition to his Christian platform, he has called for reforming immigration policies, investing in urban schools, reducing the national debt, and regulating pharmaceutical firms.
Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota
Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, declared his candidacy in an opinion piece he wrote for the Wall Street Journal in June 2023. He withdrew from the race six months later, after failing to advance beyond the fourth debate.
“We need to get inflation under control, cut taxes, lower gas prices, and reduce the cost of living,” Bergum said in his op-ed, promising to prioritize the economy above more contentious cultural matters. During his campaign, the software entrepreneur and former governor boasted about his time at the helm of Great Plains Software, a public company that went public in 1997 and was acquired by Microsoft in 2001 for $1.1 billion in shares.
With the money he made from that contract, he was able to pay for much of his campaign alone. “Achieved pension reform, helped pass term limits, and enacted the biggest tax cut in state history” were some of his accomplishments that he emphasized this year. He committed North Dakota to become carbon neutral by 2030 via the use of carbon capture and storage technologies, all the while keeping the fossil fuel sector afloat.
Burgum has a strong following in North Dakota, but he was unable to overcome the lingering affection for the previous president among GOP primary voters because he lacked the national prominence of his opponents and was not stereotypically Trumpian. He made it to the first debate, but he never managed to get more than 1% of the vote, even after promising contributors gift cards if they would just back him.
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina
Sen. Tim Scott, like Nikki Haley, has the usual suspects: a solid background in the establishment, a reputation for political ascent, and the backing of influential Republican funders. Scott seemed to be the prototypical candidate who would have been easily nominated in the past. However, Scott had a hard time winning over the public; in the polls just before he left, he averaged less than 3%.
As a result, in an interview with Trey Gowdy of Fox News in November 2023, he abruptly “suspended” his candidacy. “The voters, who are truly extraordinary, have made it very clear that they are telling me, ‘Not now, Tim,'” Scott said at Sunday Night in America.
An important part of Scott’s campaign platform was challenging the Democratic Party’s stance on institutional racism and other inequalities in the United States. He served three terms as a senator from South Carolina and was the chamber’s only Black Republican. For the last many years, he has used his achievement as evidence that anybody can overcome adversity and prove that Black Americans are not disadvantaged due to systemic racism.
The facts of my life disprove their falsehoods, Scott said of the Democrats in his April launch video. The United States of America is not a place of tyranny, as far as I am aware. Living through it has given me the knowledge. In his work as a senator, Scott has taken a similar stance on race, recognizing its significance in American culture but saying that racism mostly affects individuals rather than society as a whole.
Despite praising the “noble” vocation of law enforcement, he has spoken out against the racism he has experienced at the hands of officers, including being stopped during traffic stops. Earlier this year, while on a listening tour in South Carolina and Iowa, Scott touched on similar subjects and urged the audience to recognize the progress the US has achieved.
A staunch advocate for a six-week abortion ban in his state, Scott, an evangelical, made limitations on abortion a central tenet of his campaign. If elected president, he has also pledged to implement “the most conservative pro-life legislation Congress can pass” or a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks.
In his criticism of “Biden liberals” and promotion of conservative views on topics like crime and immigration, he has repeated tired Republican talking lines. Scott has a reputation in the legislature for leading Republican efforts to change police practices and for sponsoring bipartisan legislation to create “opportunity zones” to attract investment to low-income neighborhoods via tax breaks.
Pence, Mike (the ex-VP)
Since Trump’s crucial decision to certify the 2020 election results against his desires was made by Vice President Pence, Trump was inevitably criticized by Pence. However, despite severing relations with Trump, his former running partner, he was never able to emerge unscathed.
He warned his fellow Republicans against falling for the “siren song of populism” as he announced his withdrawal at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual convention in Las Vegas.
During his remarks, Pence said, “It’s become clear to me that this is not my time.” Despite his best efforts, Pence could not strike a balance between praising Trump’s policy accomplishments and attacking his administration. He has already made it clear on CNBC that the Republican Party will be more equipped to choose candidates than Obama.
Trump was “reckless” on the day of the January 6 revolt at the US Capitol, and he believed Trump was “wrong” in asserting he won the 2020 election, according to an interview he gave to NPR in November of last year.
Pence seems to have decided to withdraw from the race before the first primaries to maintain his status as a conservative movement leader while also admitting that his agenda was not in line with the party’s overall policy. His campaign rhetoric aimed to sway religious conservatives by highlighting his stances on issues like religious freedom, education, and abortion.
Even though the GOP’s midterm wins were muted by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Pence, a renowned evangelical Christian, continued to emphasize his opposition to abortion. He is in favor of a nationwide abortion ban and has joined Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) effort to outlaw the procedure after 15 weeks of pregnancy and abortion pills.
In addition to supporting abortion rights, Pence’s policy group, Advancing American Freedom, has a platform that includes expanding 529 college savings plans to K-12 schools, protecting the right of healthcare providers to refuse to provide certain services due to moral or religious objections, and reversing regulations about climate change.
Francis Suarez, Mayor of Miami
Francis Suarez, mayor of Miami, was the only Latino contender and has a history of urging other candidates to withdraw from the campaign if they do not get to the debate stage. In August 2023, he took his counsel to heart and became the first contender to officially conclude their campaign by withdrawing from the contest.
The “tough on crime” message was the lynchpin of Suarez’s improbable campaign. A pro-Suarez super PAC launched a video praising his stance on law enforcement and claiming credit for a 2023 drop in violent crime in Miami. From his management of his continuing battle with Disney to his failure to implement COVID-19 mitigation strategies, he took jabs at DeSantis.
Concerns of potential corruption around Suarez persist. The Miami-Dade ethics committee is looking into his links to Miami real estate developer Rishi Kapoor, who is himself the subject of investigations by the FBI and the SEC. Allegedly, Kapoor paid Suarez $10,000 monthly to help him get building permits for a city project.
Larry Elder, a radio host
Although he has never served in public office, Republican radio presenter and Fox News commentator Elder spearheaded the failed recall effort in 2021 to succeed Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom of California. After falling short of the GOP primary debate threshold in late October 2023, he backed Trump and withdrew from the race.
The United States of America is slipping, but it won’t stay that way forever. Before we can embark on a new American Golden Age, we need to choose a leader who can usher it in,” he wrote in regards to his choice to seek the presidency.
Conservative views on abortion rights, pandemic limitations (including mask laws), and other topics have been expressed by Elder, a fervent Trump supporter. Plus, he’s Black, so he’s criticized BLM and termed structural racism a “lie,” yet he portrayed his policies as helping Black people during the recall election.
Democrats’ plans, he said, would lead to a reduction in police presence in 2021, which would lead to an increase in crime. “When you lessen the odds of an evildoer being apprehended, tried, and jailed, guess what? “Crime goes up,” he told the Los Angeles Times.
He has stated his intention to sue the Republican National Committee over their exclusion from the debate stage, along with businessman Perry Johnson, who has also subsequently withdrawn from the race.
Successful Michigan businessman Perry Johnson
Midway through October 2023, after failing to qualify for the debate stage, Perry Johnson, a prominent Michigan businessman, decided to withdraw from the contest.
Johnson informed his supporters in a letter that he has “decided at this time suspending my campaign is the right thing to do” due to the lack of debating opportunities to express his perspective.
Nearly $8 million of Johnson’s money went into his campaign. Offering a $10 gas gift card for $1 was his way of trying to reach the 40,000-donor mark and qualify for the debate. He has joined Elder’s case against the RNC because, despite their best efforts, they still didn’t qualify him.
His business, Perry Johnson Registrars, audits and certifies companies to ensure they have quality management systems that satisfy international standards. He became wealthy from this venture.
Johnson’s “two-cent plan” was the centerpiece of his program. He claimed that cutting $2 of discretionary expenditure from the federal budget would lower inflation and the deficit.
Johnson had a run for the Republican nomination for governor of Michigan in 2022, but he was disqualified from the primary due to the large number of fraudulent signatures he had submitted.
Ex-Representative Will Hurd of Texas
Will Hurd, a centrist who represented a district near the border, was a vocal opponent of Trump’s immigration policy throughout his time in office. It was because Hurd thought his party had moved a far right under Trump that he decided not to run for reelection in 2020. But in 2019, he voted against Trump’s impeachment, just like his fellow Republicans.
Hurd blasted Trump in his announcement video, calling him a “lawless, selfish, failed politician” who was responsible for Republicans’ 2018 House, Senate, and presidential losses in 2020. He was quite critical of President Joe Biden’s policies on crime, inflation, and immigration, saying, “President Biden can’t solve these problems or won’t.”
While in Congress, Hurd was recognized for striking deals across party lines on topics including LGBTQ rights, gun control, and the GOP’s effort to dismantle the Affordable Care Act. Voters in the Republican Party have shown little interest in a candidate who seeks compromise, and it seems that this trend will continue since the party’s stance on MAGA politics has only become more conservative since he left office.
Hurd finally withdrew from the contest in October 2023 due to his inability to distinguish himself from the already crowded group of prominent and obscure contenders vying for lower-profile support. He spoke highly of Nikki Haley.
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