President Joe Biden currently leads Donald Trump by 2.2 per cent in Virginia, a state Biden won by about 10 per cent in 2020, according to RealClearPolling’s analysis of recent surveys. This polling data, collected between December 15, 2023, and June 4, 2024, shows Biden, aged 81, with an average of 45.5 per cent of the vote, compared to 78-year-old Trump’s 43.3 per cent.
Concerns about Biden’s candidacy were raised following the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. During the debate, Biden appeared to verbally stumble and lose his train of thought several times, causing “panic” within the Democratic Party, as reported by John King, CNN’s chief national correspondent.
A poll conducted by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News from June 1 to 3, surveying 1,107 registered voters in Virginia, found Biden with 42 per cent of the vote and Trump with 41 per cent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 9 per cent, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein and People’s Party candidate Cornel West each garnered 2 per cent. In a direct head-to-head matchup, this poll showed Biden and Trump tied at 48 per cent each.
Another survey by the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, involving 711 likely voters in Virginia, placed Biden ahead by two points, with 40 per cent to Trump’s 38 per cent. Kennedy received 8 per cent and Stein 3 per cent. This poll also found Biden and Trump tied at 42 per cent each when other candidates were excluded.
In 2020, Biden secured Virginia with 54.1 per cent of the vote, while Trump received 44 per cent. The state also supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, giving her 49.7 per cent of the vote compared to Trump’s 44.4 per cent.
After the recent debate, Biden’s odds of winning the November election dropped by 28.2 per cent on a leading betting website but later partially recovered. Meanwhile, the odds of California Governor Gavin Newsom becoming the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate increased significantly among bookmakers.
Speaking at a rally in South Carolina on Friday, Biden addressed concerns about his capability for a second term, saying: “I know I’m not a young man. State the obvious. I know. I don’t walk as easily as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. I know, like millions of Americans know, when you get knocked down, you get back up.”
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