Democrats Face Challenges on Border Security as Biden’s Popularity Suffers
Democrats now have grounds to predict that President Biden and the party may not be destroyed in 2024 because of the situation at the border as a result of the special election held in New York this week.
Democratic nominee Tom Suozzi (New York) won a challenging seat, running on a platform of stronger border security. This happened when the Republican Party was making continuous efforts on this topic. After his victory, which came shortly after Senate Republicans blocked a bipartisan border agreement, many thought the tide had turned in his favour.
Despite this, Democrats are seeing less optimistic data signs following the breakdown of the deal they were working for.
Vice President Biden’s popularity ratings remain at historically low levels regarding immigration, according to the findings of a recent study made public Tuesday by Monmouth University. There have been no changes since the start of enhanced immigration talks in December.
Currently, 71% of registered voters are against him on the issue, up from 69% who disapproved of him in December. There is a slight majority of Democrats who agree with Biden (54 per cent), but a significant majority of independents who are opposed (74 per cent).
The results of a study conducted last week by CBS News and YouGov showed that a large majority of Democrats supported Biden’s position on the issue, while independents opposed it by a similar margin: 73-27.
The results of a study conducted by ABC News and Ipsos shortly after the deal fell apart were equally devastating for the Democratic Party.
Republicans in the Senate expressed their strong support for the measure, which they referred to as a “very conservative” compromise for their position. However, just before his party decided to end it (with Donald Trump playing a key role), the study found that blame was spread virtually evenly between the two parties, with the lion’s share of the blame going to Biden. found. While about thirty per cent felt that congressional Democrats, Republicans, and Trump were “very much” responsible for the situation, thirty-five per cent held Vice President Biden with the same level of responsibility.
The percentage who held Trump accountable was significantly lower overall (39%), similar to Democrats, Republicans, and Biden (about half).
The fact that a majority of Americans in that study preferred Trump on this topic was even more worrying for Democrats than the fact that they were already concerned. Even though Trump had urged Republicans to reject the border deal, the American people trusted Trump more than Biden when it came to immigration and the border. The margin of confidence was 18 points, the vote was 44–26.
The gap is narrower today than in a survey conducted by NBC News at the beginning of the month; But, it is consistent with prior polling conducted in November at Marquette University Law School and polling of swing states conducted by Bloomberg last month. The margin is much larger than the nine-point gap that was found in a nationwide poll conducted by USA TODAY and Suffolk University in October.
Furthermore, the gap between Republicans and Democrats in Congress is much larger than the average divide that exists between the two parties. Since mid-2022, when ABC/Ipsos began asking respondents to choose a political party based on their views on the issue, Republicans have held a three to twelve-point lead in the polls.
Just two weeks ago, Biden committed to spending the next nine months telling the American people that Republicans are working to derail the immigration reform deal.
Vice President Biden said, “The American people will know every day between now and November that the only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends.”
It’s possible that voters are not as concerned about the issue as they were in New York, where immigration was not an issue for Suozzi; However, there is still plenty of time to spread the word about this issue. According to a late study, voters in that area favoured the Republican candidate on border-related issues.
Biden, on the other hand, may have more difficulty articulating that point than Suozzi. Even though the agreement has been in the news regularly over the past few weeks (and Republicans have publicly blasted it, colleagues have indicated they did so for political (read: Trump) reasons rather than ideological ones. ), it doesn’t seem like voters are blaming Republicans for the failure of the deal.
Additionally, there has been no change in the position that appears to be Biden’s most important policy liability in 2024. This is something that has not changed at all.
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