Her opponents are well-funded and well-organized, but she is facing obstacles despite the Democrats' high ambitions.
With Vice President Kamala Harris projected to be the Democrats’ next candidate, the public is thrilled. According to them, the party finally has an opponent who can take on Trump and win.
According to the current polls, Harris is expected to come out on the losing end of this race.
Considering that, on average, 38% of people approve of Harris and 50% disapprove, it’s clear that Harris’s approval rating is low. While Clinton has an average nationwide advantage of around 2 points, the few polls that have compared her to Trump in states that are considered to be battlegrounds almost always show her behind, and often by large deficits.
Perhaps they have no firm enough knowledge of Harris to believe such polls. If she puts her mind to it and works hard enough, maybe she can convince them. Her passion for the ticket may intensify.
Most certainly.
Having said that, Harris isn’t without serious campaign shortcomings that may cost her the election.
Her status as a liberal elite member of San Francisco has made her an easy target. She will be held accountable for the policies and programs put in place by the Biden administration; there will be no room for a fresh start. She made a few blunders and reports of staff feuds even while leading the country in politics.
One would be mistaken to assume that her gender or race would prevent her from winning; in fact, these factors will highly impact popular sentiment. Her record and her character as a politician are two separate issues.
When compared to Trump, Harris has a strong probability of winning due to Trump’s imperfections. But she’s not popular, to begin with, and she has a lot of work ahead of her.
Facing Criticism as a ‘San Francisco Liberal Elite,’ Kamala Harris Stands Firm
The campaign’s funds increased to $81 million in less than a day as a result of the donors’ pleasure at Biden’s choice to back Harris instead of running for president. My anecdotal evidence suggests that many of my well-educated urban coastal contacts are quite bullish about Harris’ prospects of being nominated as the Democratic candidate, maybe even surpassing Biden.
Harris would have narrowly defeated her opponent if the presidential race had been contested among college-educated coastal city dwellers. Of course, educated coastal urbanites aren’t everyone’s cup of tea; in fact, a victorious politician requires support from all stripes of voters.
A phenomenon of education polarization has emerged as one of the most striking election stories of the last decade, with voters with a bachelor’s degree or above leaning toward the Democrats and those without a degree or above leaning toward the Republicans. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan were three pivotal swing states in the Midwest that went for Trump in 2016. These changes were deciding factors. In 2020, “Joe from Scranton” Joe Biden turned them around somewhat, garnering an Electoral College triumph. Notably, among non-degreed voters of colour, Trump made considerable gains that year; polls for 2024 indicate that similar tendencies may prevail.
Democrats have put out the theory that this is due, in part, to the fact that the national party is unable to connect with voters who do not have a college degree and that the staff and donors of the party are largely educated coastal elites who do not understand or share the values of the swing-state voters. To a remarkable degree, Harris can communicate with the Democratic Party’s upper-class voting base. This is how she rose to prominence in blue California and San Francisco politics, and it is also the reason why her 2020 presidential candidacy was initially so popular. Even after her candidacy failed, she was picked as Biden’s running mate, and funds poured into Biden’s campaign as a result. This is mostly due to her qualifications. But will she be able to persuade moderates in the Midwest that she supports them, that she doesn’t see them as “hateful,” and that she isn’t a radical leftist named San Francisco? Is it possible for her to persuade the swing voters after she “speaks” to them? It is still unclear to us. She has already made a few campaign stops in key states, but now that she is the candidate, she will be under a whole other kind of exposure, and the stakes are much greater.
The Biden administration’s policies were divisive, Harris would be caught defending them
It would be unjust to hold Harris solely responsible for her dismal popularity ratings, especially considering that she is a member of the Biden-Harris administration.
Another issue for Harris’s campaign is whether the majority of Americans are unhappy with her government.
Democrats, who mostly think Biden has done a decent job, have been trying to derail his candidacy by casting blame on his age instead of his record. Though they generally agree that the measures have been beneficial, they feel that the extent to which this is true has been poorly communicated.
Voters have repeatedly indicated that Trump would improve the government’s performance on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, even though polls have shown that the general public views the current administration as having failed to adequately address these vital concerns.
Politics surrounding inflation, the border, the pullout from Afghanistan, and the conflict between Israel and Gaza did not directly affect Harris. (Despite Republicans’ claims to the contrary, Harris was hardly tasked with tackling the “root causes” of illegal immigration overseas; the “border czar” moniker is somewhat misleading.)
And Harris has been quite vocal in her support of the Obama administration’s stance on these matters. Given that doing so would lead others to wonder why she didn’t voice her disapproval sooner, she is unlikely to criticize any of the choices. Having served as vice president for four years, she will find it difficult to claim that she will implement different policies than Biden.
A new presidential candidate will often campaign on lofty ideals of reform, promising to do things differently than the current president in areas where the people want them to. Harris will have a hard time with this. Nothing is fresh for her since she carries the weight of her past. Beyond that, the general populace is dissatisfied with Biden’s administration.
A Tumultuous Journey: Kamala Harris’s Rollercoaster Ride in National Politics
Last but not least, we have to wonder whether Harris has what it takes to successfully conduct a presidential campaign. Among Democrats looking to move on from Biden, Harris’s romanticized and meme-worthy picture of political appeal has circulated, but her record as a national political leader is less impressive.
Her 2020 presidential campaign, which began in January 2019 but terminated in December 2019, was the beginning. It’s quite OK to run for president in your party’s primary and come up short. Victories and defeats are not always the result of the candidate’s “fault,” but rather of other factors. Even a defeat might set a candidate up for future triumph.
However, there were many public gaffes and rumours of infighting throughout Harris’ campaign.
During the debate, she made headlines by challenging Joe Biden on his long-standing opposition to busing policy. However, she subsequently acknowledged that her current views on the matter were the same as Biden’s.
When asked about her healthcare policy, Harris wavered, at times seeming to support a kind of Medicare-for-all that would do away with private health insurance and at other times claiming she does not.
The campaign “became a hotbed of drama and backbiting,” with competing groups constantly leaking accusations and accusations against one other, according to CNN. According to The New York Times, “One campaign strategist said it was impossible to tell whether Maya Harris was speaking for herself, as an adviser, or as a representative of her sister.” This suggests that she entrusted her sister Maya with major responsibilities. The sources cited in both articles, however, said that the candidate’s lack of decisiveness on strategy was the most significant issue plaguing the campaign.
Despite this, Biden still picked her to be his 2020 running partner. Afterwards, a like incident occurred in the office of the vice president early on in her term. The administration’s border policy was the subject of Harris’s awkward performance in a June 2021 interview with Lester Holt of NBC, during which she falsely stated that “we’ve been to the border” despite her lack of experience there. It was said that after this, she reduced her availability for interviews out of concern that she could make further blunders. (Because Biden is under fire for doing too few interviews with prominent people, it is important to remember that Harris has also not exactly gone everywhere.)
Report after report surfaced detailing the mayhem that ensued when Harris left her office. In an interview with The Washington Post, a former assistant was quite critical, saying, “It’s evident you’re not dealing with someone qualified and ready to perform the job…. When you’re with Kamala, you’re always up against her self-confidence issues and her soul-crushing critiques. So, you’re always giving in to a bully, and the reason behind it is unclear. There was a lot more staff turmoil during Donald Trump’s campaign and in the White House, but it didn’t prevent him from becoming president in 2016. There has been less talk of workplace strife in the last year, so maybe Harris has chosen advisors she gets along with better. However, the pressure is on now that she is abruptly back in the limelight. The next concern is if she is up to the task of leading a winning team and strategy.
How Kamala Harris Could Pull Off a Stunning Victory
This in no way indicates that Harris cannot win
She may face formidable obstacles to her candidacy in the form of the issues mentioned above. Indeed, she is now lagging in the polls. However, problems may be fixed and opinions can shift. Over three months remain till the election.
Donald Trump, who is Harris’s opponent, is also disliked. Democrats are holding out hope that her experience as a prosecutor will help her win Trump over. If Trump chooses to participate in the second debate, he may repeat his poor performance from the first. On the other hand, if he declines, Harris may blame him for his lack of preparation.
While Biden has had trouble winning over young people and Black voters, Harris would galvanize the left base and likely bring in even more of those demographics. She has more campaigning vigour and skill than Biden.
Also, if anything has come out of the last month, it’s that politics will always have an uncertain future.
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