The 2024 Swing State Michigan
In November, voters will choose the next president of the United States. Every vote counts, but the outcome will largely hinge on results in a few key swing states.
So, what’s a swing state? In simple terms, it’s a state where both Republicans and Democrats have similar levels of support, making it crucial in deciding who wins the election.
While certain states are often considered swing states, this can change from one election to the next due to factors like shifting demographics and voter turnout. For example, Georgia, which was traditionally a Republican state, became a swing state in 2020 when President Joe Biden won there, thanks largely to the support of Black voters. It was the first time in nearly 30 years that a Democratic presidential candidate carried the state.
Michigan is another important battleground. For years, it was a solidly Democratic state in presidential elections, but Donald Trump flipped it in 2016, winning by less than 11,000 votes. Joe Biden took it back in 2020 by a larger margin.
Heading into 2024, the race in Michigan remains critical. The state has 15 electoral votes, putting it among the top 10 most influential states in the electoral college. It’s expected to be a key focus for both parties as they work to secure those votes and win the White House.
Here’s what you need to know about Michigan as a key battleground in the 2024 election.
Why Michigan Matters in the Presidential Race
In September, U.S. News ranked Michigan as one of seven “toss-up” states for the 2024 presidential election, even though Democrats have won there consistently since 1992, except once. Michigan has also been a key indicator, with the state’s winner claiming the White House in 9 out of the last 12 elections.
Before he withdrew from the race, President Biden visited Michigan several times in 2024, highlighting the importance of keeping the “blue wall” states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—where his victory over Trump in 2020 was secured. However, a U.S. News-Generation Lab poll from July showed younger voters in Michigan were less supportive of Biden and more inclined toward Trump or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was a hypothetical candidate at the time.
After Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, they prioritized Michigan in their campaign, making a joint appearance in early August. During a rally near Detroit, Harris was interrupted by protesters opposing Israel’s actions in Gaza. She responded: “If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.” Notably, Dearborn, a Detroit suburb, has one of the highest Arab American populations in the country. After this event, Harris secured an endorsement from Assad Turfe, Wayne County’s highest-ranking Arab American official.
Former President Trump has also made multiple trips to Michigan. During a September 2023 visit, he criticized Biden’s push for electric vehicles while speaking to auto workers. Trump had earlier visited Grand Rapids in April to discuss immigration and returned in May for a speech in Freeland, where he attacked the judge handling his New York trial. On July 20, just after accepting the Republican nomination, Trump held another rally in Grand Rapids with his running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, shortly after surviving an assassination attempt.
Vance returned to Michigan on August 7, calling Governor Walz a “crazy radical” and criticizing Harris for choosing him as her vice-presidential pick, arguing it showed her allegiance to the far left. Trump later held a town hall in Flint on September 17, marking his first appearance since a second apparent assassination attempt, during which he remarked, “Only consequential presidents get shot at.”
Michigan’s Past Presidential Election Votes
Biden won Michigan in the 2020 election by nearly 3 percentage points, while Trump had narrowly won the state in 2016.
Michigan’s Crucial Voter Groups
Almost three-quarters (73.7%) of Michigan’s population is non-Hispanic white, but there is also a significant Black population, making up 14.1%. The next largest group is the Hispanic population, at 6%. Over the years, Michigan has seen slow population growth. In the 1970s, it had 21 Electoral College votes, but by 2024, it will have just 15, after losing one more since 2020.
White working-class voters are a key group for both candidates in Michigan, much like in Wisconsin. Given Michigan’s strong ties to the auto industry—home to General Motors, Ford, and the North American headquarters of Stellantis—the union vote will be closely watched. In 2023, 12.8% of Michigan’s wage and salary workers were union members, higher than the national average of 10%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Vice President Kamala Harris received the endorsement of the United Auto Workers, after the union had previously supported President Biden. Last year, Biden became the first sitting president to walk a picket line in Michigan. Former President Trump, meanwhile, has worked to gain the support of the Teamsters union. Teamsters leader Sean O’Brien made a historic appearance at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in July, though the union later announced it would not endorse any candidate for the first time since 1996.
Black voters and Michigan’s relatively large Arab American community will also play crucial roles, especially as there has been dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza. Additionally, young voter turnout was high in Michigan during the 2022 midterms, a trend Democrats hope will continue in 2024, despite some frustrations among youth over issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict and the potential ban of TikTok. A September U.S. News poll showed that 65% of young people in key states, including Michigan, would support Harris, compared to 35% for Trump.
Independent voters will be another critical group in Michigan, just as they are across the country. Independents helped Trump win Michigan in 2016, and they were key in Biden reclaiming it in 2020.
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Top Voter Concerns in Michigan
A survey conducted earlier this year by Emerson College Polling and The Hill found that nearly a third (31%) of Michigan voters ranked the economy as their top concern. Following the economy, voters highlighted immigration (13%), threats to democracy (12%), health care (10%), housing affordability (8%), education (7%), crime (7%), and abortion access (5%) as important issues.
Another survey released in late 2023 by the Detroit Regional Chamber and Glengariff Group, Inc. echoed these findings, showing that the economy remains a major focus, with inflation and the rising cost of goods being key worries for voters in Michigan.
Candidates Tackle Key Issues for Michigan
The Economy: In mid-August, Harris shared her economic vision at an event in North Carolina. She introduced a bold, populist agenda aimed at making life easier for working people and strengthening the middle class. Her plan includes a $25,000 incentive for first-time homebuyers, a $6,000 tax credit for families welcoming newborns, and a ban on price gouging for groceries. Speaking in Pennsylvania on September 25, Harris emphasized that she identifies as a “capitalist” and believes that “companies need to play by the rules.” She also committed to upholding President Biden’s pledge that those earning less than $400,000 won’t see higher taxes and proposed increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
On the other hand, former President Trump also laid out his vision for the economy during his own visit to North Carolina in August. He promised to lower taxes and ramp up U.S. energy production with a “drill, baby, drill” approach. He attributed rising inflation to Biden and Harris and proposed lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% for companies that produce their goods in the U.S., along with raising tariffs on imports—potentially up to 60% for goods from China. Both candidates have suggested cutting taxes on tipped income to some degree, and Trump even mentioned making overtime hours tax-free. According to Trump’s campaign website, his vision for America’s economic recovery is focused on lower taxes, bigger paychecks, and more jobs for American workers.
Immigration: Harris has backed a bipartisan immigration reform bill that lawmakers tried to pass earlier this year and criticized Trump for blocking it at an August rally in Arizona. She pledged that if she wins the election, she would sign that legislation into law. Drawing from her experience as California’s attorney general, she highlighted her efforts against gangs, drug cartels, and human trafficking. She maintained a similar stance during her debate with Trump on September 10.
Trump has consistently made immigration a core part of his platform. He recently described migrants as “poisoning the blood of our country,” a comment that Biden criticized during his State of the Union address. If reelected, Trump has promised to launch a large-scale deportation effort. During the debate, he frequently redirected the conversation to immigration, labeling Harris as the “border czar,” a title she never held, and blamed her and Biden for increased border crossings. He also made controversial claims about Haitian migrants in Ohio and criminal activity by migrants in Colorado, which local officials have dismissed as exaggerated.
Health Care & Abortion: As vice president, Harris has been a strong advocate for reproductive rights. At the August rally in Arizona, she pointed out how Trump’s Supreme Court nominees contributed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which protected federal abortion rights. She noted that over 20 states have enacted what she called “Trump abortion bans.” Harris promised that if elected president, she would sign legislation to restore reproductive freedoms for all women in America. During the September debate, she asserted that Trump should not dictate what women can do with their bodies. On health care, she has proposed expanding caps on prescription drug costs to benefit all Americans and advocated for extending Medicaid postpartum coverage from two months to a full year. Her campaign also highlights her opposition to Trump’s attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).
Trump has held various positions on abortion over the years, even declaring himself “the most pro-life president” in history. Recently, he stated that the decision should be left to states and that he wouldn’t support a national abortion ban. During the debate, he reiterated that he had “no reason” to back a nationwide ban since states are already determining their own restrictions. He also made unfounded claims about Democrats supporting infanticide.
In November, Trump expressed on social media his desire to “replace” the Affordable Care Act, calling it terrible. Later, he clarified that he didn’t want to terminate Obamacare but rather to improve it significantly. During the debate, he criticized Obamacare as “lousy health care” and mentioned having ideas for a replacement plan, though he didn’t share any specifics.
Threats to Democracy: Both Harris and Biden have portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy, framing it partly around the freedoms they believe he would jeopardize. During the debate, Harris referenced Trump’s comments about not being a dictator “other than Day One,” as well as the January 6 insurrection attempt by his supporters.
Trump has repeatedly made false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. In early January 2021, he was recorded asking Georgia’s secretary of state to “find 11,780 votes” to overturn Biden’s win in that state. He has also shown admiration for authoritarian figures like Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin while often attacking the media with the term “fake news.” After a recent assassination attempt against him, Trump pointed to Harris and Biden’s rhetoric about democracy as a potential catalyst for the incident.