The 2024 Elections: Character, Policy, and Strategic Choices
The campaign typically determines whether the election is a referendum or a choice between two equally compelling (or repulsive) candidates. Most advertising revolves around one of these two ideas.
Most opposition candidates and parties want to demand a referendum on the ruling party. When John Kerry ran for president in 2004, he focused on the economic and military policies of George W. Bush. Bush sought to disqualify Kerry and fight the Kerry campaign, causing voters to think twice about voting for the incumbent.
The change in the party’s role in 2012 was also similar. When the campaign became a referendum on Barack Obama’s economy and Washington, Mitt Romney fared best. However, like Bush, the Obama campaign wanted to make the election a choice between two ideas. A statement from that campaign reflects this effective Obama transformation: The president repudiated Reagan’s 1980s question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” policies”
I have never seen a campaign so badly misinterpreted as in 2016. Both parties thought their only chance of winning was to make the campaign a character referendum on the other candidate. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton adapted their campaigns. And swing voters may be confused about whether to vote for or against their candidate.
In “The Character-Based Referendum”. Washington’s elite and professional media class were half-right when they predicted a character-based vote on Trump. On Clinton, it emerged.
In 2008 and 2020, “anti-establishment” campaigns focused on parties (GOP in 2008) and individuals (Trump in 2020). After all, in 2024, the two main party candidates tried to make this campaign a referendum on each other.
Recent polls show that swing voters now see this election as a referendum on Biden rather than Trump. Since more people care about age than legal concerns for Trump, this campaign could become a negative referendum on Biden. Trump’s inconsistency helps Biden avoid a referendum.
Donald Trump prioritized airing and protecting grievances over winning re-election this weekend. Campaign 101 says to stay out of the way when your opponent is feeding badly. As he has shown many times, Trump lacks self-control, so he started stoking anti-NATO sentiments, which RT may align with. Trump has said that it is okay for him to merge Ukraine with Russia. Our European allies are frightened by our indecision.
Many Washington Democrats are confident in Biden’s position as a rival to Trump. This is why some Democratic establishment elites openly support the first option for the people (including half of the Democrats) out of fear of being ostracized for helping. Rest up and relax Trump.
Do you think Biden wants a “choice” election?
The team wants to avoid viewing the election as a judgment on Biden’s performance. If it’s an alternative election, should Democrats choose character or policy? No matter how attractive the character argument may be, it is usually better (and safer) to try to make it a policy priority.
The last 30 years have shown us that voters rarely respect character. We teach this, but people vote on the character only when they have a culturally and economically satisfying lifestyle. Character-focused campaigns failed twice against Bill Clinton, once against Trump in 2016, and once in the primaries against Trump this election cycle because supporters supported him despite his actions. Not impressed by his claims.
I will not condone Trump’s terrible behaviour. I will use the character argument only in a few ways, including how his conduct undermines agreement on controversial topics, which was Trump’s first killer. He could not oppose and missed out on several bipartisan victories. He is always his worst enemy. By being less volatile, he may have avoided many financial and political setbacks.
The character argument only works for The Bulwark, a small group of college-educated voters who may have right-wing financial and cultural views but are not able to vote for them. The Lincoln Project is popular!
If character is gone then the Biden camp must base its “choice” argument on policy. So, what is the agenda for the second term? Your question is valid because Biden and the White House have mostly said “Finish what we started” or “Preserve and enforce what we’ve already done.” A form is needed.
In March, two days after Super Tuesday and possibly after the primary season concludes, Biden could use his State of the Union speech to outline plans for his second term. When he does this he should start soon. I believe his lack of campaign planning emphasizes Biden base issues such as the president’s physical limitations.
One reason for Biden supporters being unenthusiastic may also be the lack of agenda. No matter your opinion, Trump’s chances for a second term are good. I suggest that the non-activist media has focused too much on Trump’s second term rather than Biden’s second term. Here’s why Biden hasn’t revealed his next step.
Biden should not campaign on erasing all student debt, but instead provide a realistic and ambitious plan. He should also address those who don’t like him but voted for him because they hate Trump.
How can he claim that Washington will be less passive in his second term? This pledge should be made to tired, disillusioned voters. Obama said if re-elected he would “break fever” in the GOP. His prediction was wrong, but depressed liberals found it plausible.
Biden could make a similar pledge, even if his early 2020 campaign promises of a gridlock-breaking GOP “epiphany” were false. Biden could argue that Trump’s second defeat would break the GOP’s fever and make it more visionary rather than characterized by a dislike of America. However, Biden must campaign for something other than “not Trump” to inspire Americans.
The fear of alienating its supporters may also explain why the Biden administration is hesitant to discuss a second-term agenda.
Matthew Yglesias’s famous Substack post this week offered an alternative explanation for the Biden White House’s guarding of his public appearances: fear of the breakup of the Democratic Party.
Yglesias argues, “His staff has a false theory of American politics,” suggesting that the Biden campaign and other White House strategists adopt a base mobilization approach that avoids such concerns. Said that this could be a threat to democracy. They also think Biden’s supporters and activists across Democratic Party identity and issue groups are more progressive and secular than Biden.
If you think uniting your core followers is the best way to win an election and you work for a second-generation president, you might hesitate to contradict yourself. Becomes the foundation. Group anger. Following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, many on the left criticized Biden for expressing his Catholic views on abortion, Yglesias said. That means he is controversial personally but not politically.
It all boils down to the Democratic Party’s debate over how to win the general election. Progressives control most of the official and unofficial organizations of the Democratic Party. Biden may be right about most of his most vocal followers.
According to Yglesias, “We have a clear public record that it is Team Biden’s well-informed opinion that Joe Biden’s pre-2016 record in politics is bad and bad and that he needs to craft a different, more progressive personality. If you like this approach, unplanned events are risky. He may mistakenly say that he has a religious aversion to abortion rather than to Mexico.
Progressives disagree that primary voters chose Biden in 2020 because most of his rivals were too liberal to win. He believes COVID-19 disrupted primary discussions and prompted faster consolidation, which led to his nomination.
Could it be that Biden was more moderate than the Democratic Party base, so many Democrats and non-Trump Republicans liked him? Biden’s team may share moderate voters’ concerns about the core interest organizations of the Democratic coalition. Handwritten Biden sounds more liberal than written. Remember that when voters list their views “liberal” and “conservative” usually come first or second. Always third: “liberal”.
NATO’s American problems
In NATO’s eyes, Trump is not the biggest challenge. The Republican Party presents a threat to the military alliance called NATO.
The NATO issue is a matter of opinion. However, for the Republican Party’s more isolationist stance, I would be sceptical about dismissing it as nothing more than a reaction to what Trump has said. Large numbers of soldiers from rural areas of the United States have volunteered to fight in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where many citizens ultimately lack faith. These places are characterized by the high prevalence of separatism. They were of excellent quality. Even though we captured Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and helped Iraq develop an emerging democracy, was the cost justified by the benefits?
Some conservative Republican politicians are beginning to reevaluate their opinions on these issues in light of this new reality. They are doing this in hopes of being re-elected within the Republican Party, which is now in power.
Another way to phrase this is this: If the Republican contender provided more or less aid to Ukraine, would that increase or decrease his chances of winning the primary election? I believe it is possible to effectively navigate the Republican primary by avoiding any reference to Ukraine throughout the country.
When it comes to the position that the Republican Party takes on the concept of “peace through strength,” we are quite different from the party that was led by your father, Ronald Reagan, Patty Davis. We more closely resemble the Republican Party of Calvin Coolidge’s era than Ronald Reagan’s administration.
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