Trump’s Shadow might overshadow Nikki Haley’s Super Tuesday Efforts
In the Republican presidential primary that will take place in Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, Peter McClary will make his decision on how he will vote for either former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley or former President Donald Trump dependent on one thing: the outcome of that race.
A voter called McClary, who is 62 years old and hails from the seaside town of Cohasset, intends to cast her ballot for Haley. However, she will only do so if the results of the Republican primary in her state, which took place just a week ago, signal that she has a genuine opportunity to oust Trump.
According to an article written by McClary, who voted for the real estate magnate in both 2016 and 2020, “If it’s hopeless, then I’ll throw my support around Trump and vote for him again.” It makes no difference to me who it is as long as they are still alive; Biden is not up for consideration.
Voters like McClary will be the ones to decide whether or not Haley is successful in challenging Trump’s status as the unquestioned frontrunner in the primary election. The fact that they are showing a growing indifference to her prospects is a potentially catastrophic development for her campaign, which is fast losing ground.
The recent victories that Donald Trump has achieved in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada have led many people to conclude that he will surely be the Republican nominee for president. South Carolina is the next state on the agenda, and according to an average of surveys conducted by Real Clear Politics, Trump has a thirty-point edge against Haley in that state’s elections.
To generate momentum, Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations has stressed her popularity among independent voters in New Hampshire. She has said that there is “fertile ground” for an upset on this “Super Tuesday.” Voters who are not associated with the Republican Party will only be permitted to cast their ballots in eleven out of sixteen of the primary elections that will take place on that night.
Despite this, Haley’s chances of success in the places that were formerly considered to be easily won have drastically decreased as a result of the shadow cast by Trump. According to a recent study conducted among Republicans in Massachusetts, for instance, Trump received 55% of the vote, whereas Haley received 38% of the vote.
In response to a question on the Commonwealth, the director of the Suffolk Political Research Center, David Paleologos, made the following statement: “We potentially are the canary in the coal mine.” I don’t see how she could win in a state like Massachusetts, where the number of registered independents is six times more than the number of Republicans if she can’t even win in that state.
The first Sign of Super Tuesday
The state of Massachusetts, which is located close to New Hampshire, which is located to the south, ought to be a perfect domain for Haley. These two states in New England share a genetic similarity; they both have a large population of rich individuals with extensive academic educations, which are the kinds of people that Haley can work effectively with.
During the primary election in Massachusetts, Haley earned more support from independent voters than any other contender in New Hampshire. This is although Democrats hold a small advantage in the state. Although they only account for forty per cent of New Hampshire’s voting base, the percentage of independent voters in the state is more than sixty per cent.
Haley’s team is depending on these individuals to come up in large numbers to support her in the Republican primary election that will take place on March 5. This is even though they would not ordinarily cast ballots in a Republican primary election.
We regret to inform you that the findings of the study conducted by Suffolk University raise serious concerns about the practicability of such an endeavour. Trump was able to retain a lead of more than 15 points owing to the support of forty per cent of the independent voters, even though fifty-four per cent of these individuals supported Haley.
Haley garnered just 5% of the vote, even though Trump received a landslide 87% of the vote among Republicans in Massachusetts. Jennifer Nassour, who is in charge of Haley’s campaign in Massachusetts, has downplayed concerns over the Republican response that has been directed toward the former governor of South Carolina. She stated, “You don’t win elections with 8%,” alluding to the small number of the state’s voters that fall into their electoral control. “You don’t win elections with 8%,” she continued.
Studies have regularly demonstrated that independent voters have a lower turnout in primary elections compared to party members. This may be the case in general elections, but it happens to be the case in primary elections as well.
According to Jeffrey Berry, a professor of political science at Tufts University, the independent voters who make up the majority of registered voters in Massachusetts often only account for a modest fraction of the state’s primary votes. The majority of people who go to the polls are often those who have strong opinions about the subjects.
Berry noted that “part of turnout comes from whether or not you care or whether your vote is going to make a difference” among voters. He said this about the election. “Those that are not as involved in Republican Party politics or don’t care as much or, even those that think they’re going to vote, but on election day, they get busy, and it just isn’t a priority,” he believes, may be dissuaded from attending the election as a result of Trump’s dominating lead in the race.
As a result of Trump
Independents such as Bonnie Pumelty, who is 76 years old, are currently pondering whether or not they would support Haley in the forthcoming race. In general, Pumelty, who is a retired school social worker and lives in Brookline, which is a suburb of Boston, votes for the Democrats, who are seen to be more socially progressive.
Even though she has claimed that she is contemplating voting for the former governor in the Republican primary rather than President Joe Biden in the Democratic campaign, she has stated that she would not support Haley in the general election.
“I’m not sure whether sending the message that I don’t want Trump to be president is more important,” Pumelty stated before going on to express her uncertainty regarding the significance of her decision. “All things considered, Massachusetts is such a blue state that this whole thing is likely not that consequential.”
McClary, the cautious supporter of Haley who hails from Cohasset, voiced an opinion that was very similar to this one. As a result of the primary’s position in the nomination calendar and the widespread perception that Massachusetts is a solidly blue state, he believes that his vote will “not make a difference” in the outcome of the election.
Their points of view highlight the major difficulty that Haley faces on Super Tuesday: the independent voters whose participation she is counting on to spread across the country might not consider their part in the election to be significant, and as a result, they might not participate.
Even though independents played a significant role in Haley’s triumph over Trump in New Hampshire, which was by a margin of 11 points, this does not guarantee that they will be enthusiastic about voting in other states, particularly if Trump continues to defeat Haley in the months to come.
In the later stages, “the situation gets tougher for her as these tend to have primaries that make it difficult for people who are not registered Republicans to vote or they might simply not have a tradition of crossover voting like New Hampshire has,” explained John Cluverius, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. New Hampshire is the only state that has a tradition of crossover voting.
When there is a clear frontrunner in an election year, Piva and other conservatives who are passionate about the topic are more likely to vote, according to Cluverius. This is specifically the case in election years.
Independent voters like Steve Piva, who is 55 years old, are typically less engaged in the political process. Even in the Election of 2020, he did not cast a vote. In this year’s election, he voted for Trump because he is concerned about inflation, his diminishing purchasing power at the grocery store, and the situation at the southern border.
The path that the Democratic Party has taken over the past decade or so has left me feeling incredibly dissatisfied. “They don’t represent any of my values,” Piva, a vehicle aftermarket seller from Swansea, Massachusetts, said at the end of the sentence. “I’m highly motivated to turn things around.”
Cluverius has stated that he is a member of the category of voters who will use their right to vote on March 5. “If you are already planning on voting in the Republican primary and you like all of the candidates, at least somewhat, you will probably vote for Donald Trump because Donald Trump looks like a winner,” according to Cluverius.
You May Like these News articles Also 🙂
Pingback: Trump vs. Biden Classified Document Probes: Stark Contrasts - usavotey.com
Pingback: How Biden ‘erased’ progress and insulted the left before the election - usavotey.com
Pingback: Mike Johnson and Nikki Haley's Parallel Paths of Humiliation - usavotey.com